Beaches are the primary natural and economic resource of the coastal zone and are already facing significant erosion. Accelerated relative sea level rise (RSLR), combined with possible increases in the intensity/frequency of storm events due to Climate Variability and Change (CV&C), will inevitably exacerbate beach erosion, with severe impacts on the natural and human coastal systems. The situation is particularly alarming for the island regions, which are generally characterized by ‘pocket’ beaches with limited sediment supply and at the same time are the main focus of the Greek tourist industry.
The objectives of the proposed research project MARICC are to develop state-of-the-art approaches and frameworks for (a) the assessment of beach erosion at a regional (island) scale under Climate Variability & Change (CV&C); (b) the prioritization of the adaptation response for individual island beaches on the basis of procedures involving objective physical and socio-economic indicators; and (c) the long-term, high frequency monitoring of the beach response to coastal hydrodynamics. These will be tested in two Greek islands.
MARICC is structured in 5 work packages. The spatial characteristics (e.g. area, maximum width) and other attributes (e.g. the density of the backshore development) of the islands’ beaches are recorded from the available historical satellite imagery in a user friendly GIS data base - beach inventory. This information is then used in conjunction with state–of-the-art probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) and the corresponding waves for different future dates and climatic scenarios which force cross-shore morphodynamic model ensembles to obtain beach erosion under future mean and extreme sea levels.
Long term, high frequency monitoring of beach morphology and hydrodynamics (nearshore sea levels and waves) is undertaken in (two) vulnerable to erosion beaches, in order to (a) identify morphodynamic patterns and controls and validate the satellite imagery, and (b) provide the inputs/outputs for the training and testing of state-of-the-art neural models that are employed to project beach evolution under the changing nearshore hydrodynamics. Such monitoring is prescribed by law according to the amended European Environmental impact Assessment Directive 2014/52/EU for all future coastal protection structures. Finally, a framework is developed to grade the exposure/vulnerability of the beaches under CV&C, which is tested in the two islands. Multi-criteria analysis is employed which utilize/test several criteria/indicators, well adapted to the islands specific conditions.
