Beach retreat/erosion estimates at an island scale
Models generally displayed differential behavior for almost all tested conditions, showing varying shoreline retreats and profile changes. At the same time, each model gave a range of results, reflecting the varying bed slopes and sediment sizes used; thus, the median value and minimum and maximum projections for each condition and scenario tested are considered.
The projections of long-term (under to relative sea level rise – RSLR) and episodic (under to extreme sea level – ESL, due to storm events) beach retreat/erosion are presented below for each island. Beach retreat estimates were compared to the recorded (from the most recent Google Earth Pro images) beach maximum widths (BMWs), to assess the future impacts on each beach, meaning losses in beach carrying capacity and potential damages on the backshore assets/infrastructure.
Projections of long-term beach retreat
Projection of the impacts of the RSLR on the 30 beaches of Santorini in 2100. The impacts are shown on the map as reductions (%) in the current BMW due to: A. the median beach retreats projected by the analytical model ensemble based on the moderate emission scenario RCP4.5, B. the maximum model projections based on the pessimistic emission scenario RCP8.5. | Projection of the impacts of the RSLR on the 78 beaches of Kos in 2100. The impacts are shown on the map as reductions (%) in the current BMW due to: A. the median beach retreats projected by the analytical model ensemble based on the moderate emission scenario RCP4.5, B. the maximum model projections based on the pessimistic emission scenario RCP8.5. |
Projections of episodic beach retreat
Projection of the ESL100 impacts on the 30 beaches of Santorini in 2100. The impacts are shown on the map as reductions (%) in the current BMW due to: A. the median beach retreats projected by the dynamic model ensemble based on the moderate emission scenario RCP4.5, B. the maximum model projections based on the pessimistic emission scenario RCP8.5. C. and D. the projected retreats are shown together with the recorded coverage of frontline backshore assets (as a percentage of the beach length); the current (initial) BMWs (black bars) are compared with those resulting from the beach retreats (blue bars); negative values indicate beach retreat more than the current BMW. | Projection of the ESL100 impacts on the 78 beaches of Kos in 2100. The impacts are shown on the map as reductions (%) in the current BMW due to: A. the median beach retreats projected by the dynamic model ensemble based on the moderate emission scenario RCP4.5, B. the maximum model projections based on the pessimistic emission scenario RCP8.5. C. and D. the projected retreats are shown together with the recorded coverage of frontline backshore assets (as a percentage of the beach length); the current (initial) BMWs (black bars) are compared with those resulting from the beach retreats (blue bars); negative values indicate beach retreat more than the current BMW. |
